LDP's Unexpectedly Stunning Victory in the General Election
LDP's Unexpectedly Stunning
Victory in the General Election
Following the dissolution of the House of Representatives by Prime Minister
Koizumi, ballot boxes were open on September 11 for the 44th General Election
of the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party secured
296 seats, which exceeded a stable absolute majority; together with its
partner, New Komeito, the ruling coalition has secured more than two-thirds
(327) of the seats. In contrast, the Democratic Party of Japan, the main
opposition force, secured only 113 seats, substantially less than the
number it held before the chamber was dissolved. The results were very
disappointing for the DPJ, which had been gaining ground and showing enthusiasm
for taking charge of the government.
In the Diet, Japan's legislative body, even if a bill is rejected in the House of Councillors after approval by the House of Representatives, the bill will be passed if it is approved again with two-thirds or more affirmative votes in the House of Representatives. What the results of the latest election of the Lower House show is that the LDP, in an extreme instance, is able to pass whatever bills it may want to.
Mr. Koizumi, typically, posed a direct question to the public: "To oppose the bill for privatizing Japan Post is tantamount to blocking structural reform. Are you really sure that that is acceptable?" It is natural for someone to say "No" when asked if they want to hinder reform. Mr. Koizumi's simple, but skillful tactic turned out successful. The messages which the DPJ tried to convey were, on the contrary, not easy to understand.
The complete defeat of the leading opposition party, which has argued in favor of reform, was almost certainly due to the voters' perception that DPJ was reluctant to reform simply because it opposed the bill proposed by the ruling coalition. As a result, the DPJ ended up misleading the public since it failed to address this perception in its publicity strategy. In the early stages, it waited to see if the LDP was going to end up destroying itself by internal strife, and clearly neglected to point out specific flaws in the bill and to present its own proposals for reform to the public positively and in an easy-to-understand manner.
Following the landslide victory of the LDP in the election, various economic organizations published their comments: Nippon Keidanren (the Japan Business Federation) and Keizai Doyukai (the Japan Association of Corporate Executives) said that Koizumi's structural reform track has been approved by the people, while Nihon Shoko Kaigisho (the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry) made a welcoming statement in which it stressed the need for a more stable administration. On the other hand, Rengo (the Japanese Trade Union Confederation) registered surprise and declared that it would continue supporting the DPJ in order to establish a government on the basis of workers' interests, while Zenroren (the National Confederation of Trade Unions) said that the results of the election in no sense meant giving the incumbent government carte blanche for the coming four years.
It is said that the election results seem to have been affected by the impression that the DPJ was hamstrung - in seeking to vote down the bill privatizing Japan Post - by its relationship with Rengo, which has close relations with various stakeholders in administrative and local government circles and the unions. The new leadership established following the election will undoubtedly need to reconsider the relationship between the unions and political parties. Attention must be paid not only to Koizumi-style privatization of Japan Post, pension reform, and other reforms, including that of the social security net, but also to future ties between the DPJ and labor unions.
