Prime Minister Koizumi Dissolves the Lower House - How Will the Public Verdict Go?
As explained in the Current Topics, a series of bills to privatize Japan Post was voted down, after which Prime Minister Koizumi dissolved the House of Representatives and called for a general election.
Openly recognizing that the government would not be able to conduct administrative and financial reform if it could not even privatize Japan Post, Prime Minister Koizumi declared that the dissenting votes were a campaign to topple the government, and decided not to cooperate in the election of LDP members who had cast dissenting votes against privatization, including lawmakers representing the interests of those involved in the sector. Believing that the Japanese people would call for the postal reforms even if the Diet said "no" and the LDP split up, he resorted to dissolution and called for a general election to test the public's view on the reforms.
What will be the outcome? Koizumi seems to be facing the biggest test of his four and a half years in office, ever since his debut as a champion of structural, administrative and financial reforms.
Due to a decline in the number of supporters, the Liberal Democratic Party, originally a coalition of various conservative factions headed by leaders with a powerful say in forming cabinets, is now barely able to stay in power by joining hands with New Komeito.
While in office, Prime Minister Koizumi, with the help of a high approval rating among the public, attempted to make factional power politics history by resolutely insisting on forming a Cabinet unconstrained by political divisions and past practices. Since he emphasized when first taking office that he was willing to get rid of his party's outdated aspects in the interest of reform, his decision to split with the rebellious lawmakers may well be a natural consequence.
Although Koizumi's postal reform proposal was subject to a certain degree of compromise as well as criticized by opposition parties (who said that it was far from true privatization), his logic of cutting the number of civil servants through privatization, as a step towards reform in the interest of small government, seems quite easy to understand.
In the meantime, how far will the opposition parties' succeed in reaching the Japanese public with their claim that, with various other pressing issues such as social security and economic measures, the government should not give sole priority to postal reform nor should it create a political vacuum by calling for a general election?
Additionally, how far will the average Japanese feel sympathy with the claims of Rengo, which supports the Democratic Party of Japan - the largest opposition party, which released its manifesto somewhat later than the LDP - and aims at a change in political leadership so as to realize a welfare society focused on labor?
