Vol.33-No.07 July 1,1994
In March, Japan Productivity Center for Socioeconomic Development , formerly the Japan productivity Center, headed by Mr. Masao Kamei, published its 1994 white paper on labor-management relations. Using economic data in the period from the first quarter of 1975 to the second quarter of 1993, the annual report analyzes the mechanism of recent employment fluctuations of white-collar workers. A one-percent decrease in real gross national product led to a 0.7 percent drop in the number of white-collar workers, which was equivalent to approximately 200,000 employees. The ongoing strengthening of the Japanese currency works to raise real hourly wages in dollar terms and lower the number of white-collar workers. Thus, estimates predict that a 20 percent rise of the yen shrinks the number of employees by 0.34 percent, or about 95,000.
The white paper analyzes that the recent 2 percent reduction in total hours actually worked brings on a 0.85 percent, or 240,000 rise in white-collar workers together with an increase in the number of part-timers. Shortening of work hours, however, also gives a boost to the rate of hourly wages, and thus a 2 percent cut in work hours slashes 10,000 white-collar jobs, bringing the net increase in the number of white-collar workers to 230,000.
From these three economic factors, it can be seen that economic fluctuations in the past year reduced the overall demand for white-collar workers by about 70,000 (based upon assumption of 20 percent yen appreciation).
Loss of 70,000 jobs for white-collar workers cannot stir a debate over "excess employment of white-collar workers," the annual report points out. In actuality, however, the high growth of over 5 percent during the bubble years increased demand for white-collar workers by about 1.2 million annually. The economic slowdown suddenly destroyed this situation, thus creating a social problem, the annual report stresses.
Meanwhile, according to the report's calculations, the number of white-collar workers with college degrees has been rising by about 840,000 (approximately 1.2 million college graduates as a whole) each year now that members of the second baby-boom generation are currently reaching job-search age. The increased supply of new labor further intensifies difficulty of graduates in finding jobs and thus fuels excess labor conditions, the annual report notes.
Demand for white-collar workers with college educations will only increase by 360,000 because of negative growth, a strong yen and the rise in real wages, and lack of demand for 500,000 white-collar workers has created unemployment and further redundancies, the annual report concludes.
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